Yesterday, I created this spreadsheet containing a county-by-county analysis of the 2018 early vote in North Dakota, as of October 20. Early voting participation in North Dakota has been high: some North Dakota counties have already seen numbers of received early vote ballots that are more than one-quarter of the total number of overall votes cast in the 2012 U.S. Senate election in North Dakota.
Here are some important notes regarding the analysis of the North Dakota early vote so far:
The second major point in my analysis is early voting participation is high in North Dakota in 2018. Statewide in North Dakota as of October 20, a total of 78,647 absentee, vote-by-mail, and early voting ballots have been sent to North Dakota voters, equal to slightly less than one-quarter (rounded to two decimal places, 24.51%) of all votes cast in the 2012 U.S. Senate race in North Dakota, and a total of 35,441 absentee, vote-by-mail, and early voting ballots in North Dakota have been returned, equal to slightly more than one-tenth (rounded to two decimal places, 11.05%) of all votes cast in the 2012 U.S. Senate race in North Dakota. It should be important to note that 2012 was a presidential election year, whereas there is no presidential race on the ballot in 2018.
The third major point in my analysis is that numerous, but not all, counties that are more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole have seen rather low early voting turnout as a percentage of the 2012 electorate so far. Some examples of this include both of the North Dakota counties that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (both counties in question have large Native American populations), Sioux County (as percentages of the 2012 total vote, 7.98% sent/4.25% received) and Rolette County (7.19% sent/3.26% received), as well as Cass County (9.99% sent/4.21% received), where Fargo, the largest city in the state, is located, and Grand Forks County (13.56% sent/7.31% received), where Grand Forks, the third-largest city in the state, is located. This means that there is, on the whole, more room to grow for the Dem-NPL than the GOP in terms of getting voters to turn out, whether it be by voting early or voting on Election Day.
The fourth major point in my analysis is that numerous counties in North Dakota have seen massive early voting participation. The county that has seen the highest percentage (relative to the 2012 total vote in the U.S. Senate race) of early voting ballots sent is McHenry County, which is usually an electoral bellwether for North Dakota as a whole (for example, Heitkamp got 50.20% of the vote in McHenry County in the 2012 U.S. Senate race, compared to 50.23% statewide in the same election, and McHenry County has went for the winner of North Dakota's electoral votes in every presidential election since 1928); in McHenry County, a total of 2,140 early voting ballots have been sent to voters in McHenry County this year as of October 20, equal to nearly four-fifths (rounded to two decimal places, 79.05%) of the county's total number of votes in the 2012 U.S. Senate race. The county that has seen the highest percentage (relative to the 2012 total vote in the U.S. Senate race) of early voting ballots returned is Nelson County, which is usually more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole (for example, Heitkamp got 59.50% of the vote in Nelson County in the 2012 U.S. Senate race); in Nelson County, a total of 617 early voting ballots have been returned, equal to nearly three-eighths (rounded to two decimal places, 36.97%) of the total vote in Nelson County in the 2012 U.S. Senate race.
In concluding my analysis, I make the following conclusions:
Here are some important notes regarding the analysis of the North Dakota early vote so far:
- As of this writing, no votes have been actually counted for any candidates in North Dakota in the 2018 elections; vote totals for specific candidates are not reported until after the Election Day polls close.
- Unlike every other U.S. state, North Dakota lacks voter registration, so there aren't official early voting statistics based on party registration and/or race like some, but not all, other states provide.
- The North Dakota Secretary of State's office maintains a drop-down list of early voting statistics by county here; I've not been able to find precinct-level early voting statistics in North Dakota for the 2018 elections, and two (as of October 20) early votes in Burleigh County that are not counted among "ballots sent" or "ballots received" on the North Dakota Secretary of State's website are, in my spreadsheet, counted as ballots that have been "sent" and "received".
- The percentages in each county for the Dem-NPL and Republican nominees in the 2012 U.S. Senate race in North Dakota are from David Leip's U.S. election atlas, whose mainpage can be accessed here; I've not been able to directly link to the 2012 U.S. Senate results for North Dakota on Leip's website.
- The "projected electorate" figures are NOT counted votes in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in North Dakota; the "projected electorate" figures are calculated by multiplying the Dem-NPL and GOP percentages from the 2012 in each county by the number of sent ballots (for the "sent projected electorate") and the number of received ballots (for the "received projected electorate").
- In the 2012 U.S. Senate election in North Dakota (the most recent instance of a Dem-NPL nominee winning a statewide race in North Dakota), Dem-NPL nominee Heidi Heitkamp narrowly defeated GOP nominee Rick Berg; Heitkamp is running for re-election this year as a Dem-NPLer against Republican challenger Kevin Cramer.
The second major point in my analysis is early voting participation is high in North Dakota in 2018. Statewide in North Dakota as of October 20, a total of 78,647 absentee, vote-by-mail, and early voting ballots have been sent to North Dakota voters, equal to slightly less than one-quarter (rounded to two decimal places, 24.51%) of all votes cast in the 2012 U.S. Senate race in North Dakota, and a total of 35,441 absentee, vote-by-mail, and early voting ballots in North Dakota have been returned, equal to slightly more than one-tenth (rounded to two decimal places, 11.05%) of all votes cast in the 2012 U.S. Senate race in North Dakota. It should be important to note that 2012 was a presidential election year, whereas there is no presidential race on the ballot in 2018.
The third major point in my analysis is that numerous, but not all, counties that are more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole have seen rather low early voting turnout as a percentage of the 2012 electorate so far. Some examples of this include both of the North Dakota counties that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (both counties in question have large Native American populations), Sioux County (as percentages of the 2012 total vote, 7.98% sent/4.25% received) and Rolette County (7.19% sent/3.26% received), as well as Cass County (9.99% sent/4.21% received), where Fargo, the largest city in the state, is located, and Grand Forks County (13.56% sent/7.31% received), where Grand Forks, the third-largest city in the state, is located. This means that there is, on the whole, more room to grow for the Dem-NPL than the GOP in terms of getting voters to turn out, whether it be by voting early or voting on Election Day.
The fourth major point in my analysis is that numerous counties in North Dakota have seen massive early voting participation. The county that has seen the highest percentage (relative to the 2012 total vote in the U.S. Senate race) of early voting ballots sent is McHenry County, which is usually an electoral bellwether for North Dakota as a whole (for example, Heitkamp got 50.20% of the vote in McHenry County in the 2012 U.S. Senate race, compared to 50.23% statewide in the same election, and McHenry County has went for the winner of North Dakota's electoral votes in every presidential election since 1928); in McHenry County, a total of 2,140 early voting ballots have been sent to voters in McHenry County this year as of October 20, equal to nearly four-fifths (rounded to two decimal places, 79.05%) of the county's total number of votes in the 2012 U.S. Senate race. The county that has seen the highest percentage (relative to the 2012 total vote in the U.S. Senate race) of early voting ballots returned is Nelson County, which is usually more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole (for example, Heitkamp got 59.50% of the vote in Nelson County in the 2012 U.S. Senate race); in Nelson County, a total of 617 early voting ballots have been returned, equal to nearly three-eighths (rounded to two decimal places, 36.97%) of the total vote in Nelson County in the 2012 U.S. Senate race.
In concluding my analysis, I make the following conclusions:
- In regards to this year's U.S. Senate race in North Dakota, if Heidi Heitkamp can hold together her winning coalition of voters from six years ago and get increased voter turnout from counties like Cass and Grand Forks, she would be in a very strong position to win re-election.
- While the early voting electorate in North Dakota so far appears to be slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, increasing voter turnout from counties that are more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole could be a major electoral boost for the Dem-NPL.
- Some parts of North Dakota appear to be on pace for higher voter turnout in 2018, with no presidential race on the ballot, than in 2012, when there was a presidential race on the ballot.
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