On the eve of a special election in Ohio, national polling shows an unbelievably massive shift towards Democrats among white, college-educated women
Tomorrow, voters in Ohio's 12th Congressional District will vote in a special election to fill the district's vacant U.S. House seat. Recent pre-election opinion polling has shown that the election is expected to be extremely close, although support for Democratic nominee Danny O'Connor appears to be surging in the lead-up to the special election. One recent pre-election opinion poll had O'Connor only one percentage point behind Republican nominee Troy Balderson, well within the poll's margin of error, and a different pre-election opinion poll had O'Connor ahead of Balderson by only one percentage point, also within that poll's margin of error.
The 12th District of Ohio was gerrymandered by Republicans to be what would be considered in 2012 to be a Republican stronghold. After cracking the Columbus area into three Republican-leaning districts after the 2000 Census, Republicans in Ohio, after the 2010 Census and despite Ohio losing two congressional districts as a result of the 2010 Census, Republicans that controlled the redistricting process in Ohio created an effectively new Congressional district, the 3rd District, that included the most heavily-Democratic areas of Franklin County, an area of Ohio that has swung massively towards Democrats in the last quarter of a century. Much of the northern suburban portions of Franklin County were placed in the 12th District, which is a district based in Delaware County, historically a Republican stronghold that has become an extension of the northern Columbus suburbs in recent decades, although, in a community-of-interest violation, the district extends as far east as portions of Muskingum County, a blue-collar area that swung fairly drastically towards Republicans with Donald Trump atop the ticket in 2016 after having previously been a modestly Republican-leaning area, and as far north as portions of Richland County, another Republican-leaning county anchored by an historically blue-collar city that became even more of a Republican stronghold in 2016.
Nearly a week ago, Kevin Drum of Mother Jones wrote this piece about white nationalist and Trump crony Steve Bannon effectively conceding the white, college-educated women demographic to the Democrats in a Vanity Fair interview. Drum's article included this set of graphs showing partisan preferences among four subdemographics of white voters nationally: white men with no college degree, white, college-educated men, white women with no college degree, and white, college-educated women, according to nationwide polling conducted for The Washington Post. The only one of the four subdemographics where Republican support is above 50% is white men with no college degree, which is the core demographic of Trump's political base of support. Two of the three subdemographics, white men with no college degree and white, college-educated men, have recently seen modest shifts toward preferring Democrats. However, there has been, to put it mildly, an extremely drastic shift in partisan preferences towards Democrats among white, college-educated women nationally. Just two years ago, white, college-educated women were a slightly Democratic-leaning demographic. Recent polling has shown that less than a quarter of white, college-educated women prefer the Republicans, whereas over three-fifths of white, college-educated women prefer the Democrats. This line graph from The Washington Post is a good illustration of how partisan preferences among subdemographics of white voters have evolved since the early 2000's, and the recent drastic shift towards Democrats among white, college-educated women is glaringly obvious.
I'm not too familiar with the demographics of the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, although the district has, according to a 2016 U.S. Census Bureau estimate, the district had an estimated total population of 758,614 people, of which an estimated 661,114 people are white, meaning that the district is, by my calculations and rounding to the nearest one-hundredth of one percent, 87.15% white. According to the estimate and by my calculations, an estimated 50.58% of the total population of the 12th District is female, and an estimated 41% of the total population has attained a bachelor's degree or a higher level of education. Based on that data, I would make an educated guess that approximately one-sixth of the 12th District's population consists of white, college-educated women.
The 12th Congressional District special election in Ohio is going to be a major test of whether the national trend of white, college-educated women abandoning the Republicans and preferring the Democrats in massive numbers in nationwide scientific opinion polling is reflected in actual election results. If the western portion of the district, which I would make an educated guess has a higher proportion of college-educated voters than other parts of the district, powers Danny O'Connor to victory tomorrow, that would be indicative of massive electoral problems for the Republicans nationally. If Republicans completely give up on trying to win back white, college-educated women, they would need to win over some voters of color in order to develop a new coalition capable of winning nationally, which would be a virtually impossible task with Donald Trump being the highest-ranking Republican elected official in the country, given that Trump has repeatedly made racist remarks about people of color as a political candidate and as President.
The 12th District of Ohio was gerrymandered by Republicans to be what would be considered in 2012 to be a Republican stronghold. After cracking the Columbus area into three Republican-leaning districts after the 2000 Census, Republicans in Ohio, after the 2010 Census and despite Ohio losing two congressional districts as a result of the 2010 Census, Republicans that controlled the redistricting process in Ohio created an effectively new Congressional district, the 3rd District, that included the most heavily-Democratic areas of Franklin County, an area of Ohio that has swung massively towards Democrats in the last quarter of a century. Much of the northern suburban portions of Franklin County were placed in the 12th District, which is a district based in Delaware County, historically a Republican stronghold that has become an extension of the northern Columbus suburbs in recent decades, although, in a community-of-interest violation, the district extends as far east as portions of Muskingum County, a blue-collar area that swung fairly drastically towards Republicans with Donald Trump atop the ticket in 2016 after having previously been a modestly Republican-leaning area, and as far north as portions of Richland County, another Republican-leaning county anchored by an historically blue-collar city that became even more of a Republican stronghold in 2016.
Nearly a week ago, Kevin Drum of Mother Jones wrote this piece about white nationalist and Trump crony Steve Bannon effectively conceding the white, college-educated women demographic to the Democrats in a Vanity Fair interview. Drum's article included this set of graphs showing partisan preferences among four subdemographics of white voters nationally: white men with no college degree, white, college-educated men, white women with no college degree, and white, college-educated women, according to nationwide polling conducted for The Washington Post. The only one of the four subdemographics where Republican support is above 50% is white men with no college degree, which is the core demographic of Trump's political base of support. Two of the three subdemographics, white men with no college degree and white, college-educated men, have recently seen modest shifts toward preferring Democrats. However, there has been, to put it mildly, an extremely drastic shift in partisan preferences towards Democrats among white, college-educated women nationally. Just two years ago, white, college-educated women were a slightly Democratic-leaning demographic. Recent polling has shown that less than a quarter of white, college-educated women prefer the Republicans, whereas over three-fifths of white, college-educated women prefer the Democrats. This line graph from The Washington Post is a good illustration of how partisan preferences among subdemographics of white voters have evolved since the early 2000's, and the recent drastic shift towards Democrats among white, college-educated women is glaringly obvious.
I'm not too familiar with the demographics of the 12th Congressional District of Ohio, although the district has, according to a 2016 U.S. Census Bureau estimate, the district had an estimated total population of 758,614 people, of which an estimated 661,114 people are white, meaning that the district is, by my calculations and rounding to the nearest one-hundredth of one percent, 87.15% white. According to the estimate and by my calculations, an estimated 50.58% of the total population of the 12th District is female, and an estimated 41% of the total population has attained a bachelor's degree or a higher level of education. Based on that data, I would make an educated guess that approximately one-sixth of the 12th District's population consists of white, college-educated women.
The 12th Congressional District special election in Ohio is going to be a major test of whether the national trend of white, college-educated women abandoning the Republicans and preferring the Democrats in massive numbers in nationwide scientific opinion polling is reflected in actual election results. If the western portion of the district, which I would make an educated guess has a higher proportion of college-educated voters than other parts of the district, powers Danny O'Connor to victory tomorrow, that would be indicative of massive electoral problems for the Republicans nationally. If Republicans completely give up on trying to win back white, college-educated women, they would need to win over some voters of color in order to develop a new coalition capable of winning nationally, which would be a virtually impossible task with Donald Trump being the highest-ranking Republican elected official in the country, given that Trump has repeatedly made racist remarks about people of color as a political candidate and as President.
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