Most election analysts are already predicting that this year's midterm elections are likely to be a very strong election year for the Democratic Party nationally. One region of the country that could amplify an already-likely "blue wave" of Democratic electoral victories is the Inland Midwest, a six state region consisting of Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The Inland Midwest region gets its name because all six states are Midwestern states, but none of the six states have a shoreline along any of the Great Lakes.
The Inland Midwest is a very Republican-leaning region of the country, as Donald Trump received slightly over 56% of the vote in last year's presidential election in the six-state region. However, at least one statewide race in each of the six states in the Inland Midwest are competitive (including all three U.S. Senate races in the region), and several U.S. House seats in the region are competitive as well. As much of the Inland Midwest's land use is for agricultural purposes, Trump's trade war, which has had a negative impact on farmers in the Inland Midwest, is an important issue in the Inland Midwest, especially in races for federal office. Additionally, issues like health care, rural broadband, workers' rights, the minimum wage, and human rights are important in the Inland Midwest.
In this blog post, I will detail multiple competitive races in each of the six Inland Midwestern states. The following notes apply:
Offices on the ballot in Iowa in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, agriculture commissioner, all four of the state's U.S. House seats, state senate seats in the 25 odd-numbered state senate districts, and all 100 state house seats. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election by joint ticket.
In the Iowa gubernatorial election, Fred Hubbell, a businessman and philanthropist, won the Democratic nomination in the primary, and Hubbell is now running against Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds. The Reynolds administration in Iowa has come under recent criticism over an Iowa Democratic veterans caucus entry to the Iowa State Fair veterans parade being removed from the parade for political reasons. Hubbell, among other things, supports reproductive rights, restoring public employee collective bargaining, and expanding soil and water conservation efforts.
In the secretary of state race in Iowa, small business owner Deidre DeJear won a hotly-contested Democratic primary to advance to the general election against Republican incumbent Paul Pate. If elected, DeJear would become the first black person to hold statewide elected office in Iowa history. DeJear is a staunch supporter of protecting voters' rights and ensuring that elections are properly administered.
It would not be unthinkable for Democrats to win all four of Iowa's congressional districts, and if that were to happen, it would be a net gain of three U.S. House seats out of Iowa alone for the Democrats.
In the 1st Congressional District of Iowa, Democratic nominee Abby Finkenauer, a state representative, is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Rod Blum. If there ever was a politician who sounded like Iowa, it would be Abby Finkenauer. Finkenauer has run television ads on local TV stations in the 1st District of Iowa highlighting her upbringing in a blue-collar family, and Finkenauer supports improving infrastructure, reproductive rights, relief for those burdened by student loan debt, and equal pay for equal work.
In the 3rd Congressional District of Iowa, Republican incumbent David Young is facing a difficult re-election battle against Democratic challenger Cindy Axne, who is running for Congress while refusing to take corporate political action committee donations. Axne, who herself was stripped of health insurance by a private health insurance company, supports creating a public option health insurance system. On other issues, Axne supports LGBTQ rights, reproductive rights, and renewable energy.
In the 4th Congressional District, white supremacist and Republican U.S. Rep. Steve King is facing Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten. Scholten has been critical of the Trump trade war, as well as corporate consolidation in the agriculture industry.
Kansas
Offices on the ballot in Kansas in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, insurance commissioner, state board of education seats in the five odd-numbered state board of education districts, all four of the state's U.S. House seats, and all 125 state house seats. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election by joint ticket.
The gubernatorial election in Kansas is shaping up to be extremely competitive. Kansas Republicans nominated Kris Kobach, the infamous, far-right Kansas Secretary of State who was the vice chairman of Donald Trump's voter suppression commission, in a closely-contested primary for governor in which Kobach defeated incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer for the GOP nomination. Kobach has a long history of controversial actions, including, but not limited to, refusing to follow a federal court order to stop enforcing a discriminatory proof-of-citizenship voter registration law, pressuring municipalities in multiple U.S. states into passing discriminatory anti-immigrant ordinances, and championing policies designed to make it as hard as possible for people to vote in elections. Furthermore, Kobach has employed white nationalists on his gubernatorial campaign staff. Democrats in Kansas nominated Laura Kelly, a state senator from Topeka, for governor. A major policy proposal that Kelly supports is fully funding K-12 education in Kansas, and Kelly also supports expanding Kansas's Medicaid program, investing in rural roads and rural broadband internet, and prohibiting discrimination against LGBTQ civil servants in Kansas. Kelly has a good chance of defeating both Kobach and independent candidate Greg Orman in the general election.
It would not be completely unthinkable for Democrats to win a majority of seats in Kansas's U.S. House delegation, even though Republicans currently hold all four of Kansas's U.S. House districts.
In the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas, Paul Davis, the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, is running against Republican nominee Steve Watkins. Davis has a massive cash-on-hand advantage according to the latest campaign finance reports, with Davis having slightly more than seven and a half times as much cash on hand as Watkins does. Davis has openly compared the disastrous Trump federal tax scam law to the failed Brownback experiment in Kansas, and Davis supports efforts to limit the influence of moneyed special interests in federal politics.
In the 3rd Congressional District of Kansas, Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder, who infamously went skinny-dipping in the Sea of Galilee in 2012, will face Democratic challenger Sharice Davids in the general election. Davids, an attorney and mixed martial arts fighter, would be among the first, if not the first, female Native American(s) elected to either house of Congress, as well as the first openly-LGBTQ person to be elected to either house of Congress from Kansas, if she were to win the general election. Not long before the media projected Davids to have won the Democratic primary, Yoder made a racist remark claiming that Davids was not "from around here", even though she attended Johnson County Community College, which is located in the 3rd District of Kansas. Yoder's remark about Davids was heavily criticized in a Kansas City Star editorial. Davids supports, among other things, allowing those with student loan debt to refinance student loans, expanding background checks on gun sales, LGBTQ rights, and voting rights.
In the 4th Congressional District of Kansas, a rematch of a 2017 special election that saw Republican Ron Estes defeat Democrat James Thompson by a narrow margin will take place in this year's general election. Thompson, in his second attempt to defeat Estes and win the Wichita-based U.S. House district, has the backing of prominent progressives like U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and U.S. House candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY-14), and Thompson supports Medicare for All, workers' rights, and investment in infrastructure, among other things.
Missouri
Offices on the ballot in Missouri in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, the state's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat, auditor, all eight of the state's U.S. House seats, state senate seats in the 17 even-numbered state senate districts, and all 163 state house seats.
Democrats in Missouri received a major boost from Missouri voters after, in a statewide referendum on August 8, voters repealed Missouri's anti-worker wage theft (i.e., right-to-work) law in a massive landslide. The resounding victory for the effort to repeal Missouri's wage theft law is a clear example that campaigning on worker's rights issues is a political winner in Missouri, and that Missouri voters want elected officials to protect worker's rights and support policies to boost their paychecks.
In the U.S. Senate race in Missouri, U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is running for re-election against Republican challenger Josh Hawley, who is the Missouri attorney general and is one of numerous state attorneys general who filed a lawsuit seeking to allow health insurance companies to deny health insurance coverage to those with pre-existing conditions. McCaskill has been a strong critic of Russian interference in U.S. elections, and McCaskill, like many other Democratic candidates in the Inland Midwest, has been heavily critical of the Trump trade war, and she supports protecting health care coverage for those with pre-existing conditions.
The state auditor race in Missouri is very interesting, one reason being that it's not completely clear if Republican nominee, Saundra McDowell, is eligible to run for the office of state auditor in Missouri. Missouri requires the state auditor to have been a Missouri resident for at least ten years at the time of election, and it appears to be at least a possibility that McDowell could be removed from the general election ballot. In any case, Democratic incumbent Nicole Galloway, who is seeking re-election to the state auditor's office, is an extremely dedicated public servant who is committed to protecting Missouri taxpayers.
Democrats currently hold two of Missouri's eight congressional districts, and at least two U.S. House races in Republican-held districts Missouri are competitive.
In the 2nd Congressional District of Missouri, Republican incumbent Ann Wagner is seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Cort VanOstran, an attorney who once clerked for former Missouri Supreme Court Chief Justice Richard Teitelman. VanOstran supports universal background checks on gun purchasers, expanding access to treatment facilities for those addicted to opioids, equal pay for equal work, and reducing the influence of money in politics.
In the 4th Congressional District of Missouri, small business founder and communion minister Renee Hoagenson narrowly won a well-fought Democratic primary contest, and Hoagenson will face Republican incumbent Vicky Hartzler. Hoagenson opposes using taxpayer money for private schools and supports Medicare for All and campaign finance reform.
Nebraska
Offices on the ballot in Nebraska in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, the state's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, state board of education seats in state board of education districts 5, 6, 7, and 8, state board of regents seats in state board of regents districts 3, 4, 5, and 8, state public service commissioner seats in state public service commission districts 1 and 3, all three of the state's U.S. House seats, and state senate seats in the 24 even-numbered state legislative districts. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election by joint ticket.
Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer is facing a tough re-election battle against Democratic challenger Jane Raybould, a Lincoln city councilor and grocery store executive. Raybould is making her opposition to Trump's trade war a major part of her campaign, and she supports actual policy proposals to lower health care costs, including allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices.
Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts is in a competitive re-election battle against Democratic candidate Bob Krist, a state senator and U.S. Air Force veteran. Ricketts has a prior history of losing a statewide election in Nebraska in a favorable political environment for Democrats nationally, as Ricketts lost the 2006 U.S. Senate race in Nebraska to then-U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson, and Krist has the endorsement of the Independent Cattlemen of Nebraska in this year's gubernatorial race in Nebraska.
One of the biggest surprises in the 2018 campaign season occurred in the Democratic primary in the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska, when Kara Eastman, a directly-elected member of a community college board and a non-profit organization founder, ran as a progressive candidate and narrowly defeated centrist former U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford (D-NE) to win the Democratic nomination. If she were to defeat incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, Eastman would be the first Democratic woman to represent any part of Nebraska in the U.S. House, and only the second woman of any party affiliation to represent any part of Nebraska in the U.S. House. Eastman is running on a progressive platform, including, among other proposals, making four-year college tuition-free for poor and middle-class Americans, Medicare for All, a ban on the sale of assault weapons to civilians, and investment in renewable energy. If elected, Eastman would probably be the most progressive person elected to federal office from Nebraska.
North Dakota
Offices on the ballot in North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, the state's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat, attorney general, secretary of state, tax commissioner, agriculture commissioner, two at-large public service commission seats, the state's at-large U.S. House seat, state senate seats in the 24 odd-numbered state legislative districts, and a total of 48 state house seats in the 24 odd-numbered state legislative districts that each elect two state house members.
North Dakota is the only Inland Midwestern state, and only one of two states nationally (the other being Minnesota, located in the Great Lakes region), where the official state-level Democratic Party organization does not operate under the name "Democratic Party". North Dakota's state-level Democratic Party organization was formed out of a merger between the state Democratic Party and the Nonpartisan League, a former state-level political party, and, as such, it is known as the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party, and a Democrat in North Dakota can be referred to as "Dem-NPLer".
In North Dakota, pre-election opinion polling data is usually very limited and of questionable quality (an infamous example of pre-election opinion polling in North Dakota being of poor quality was during the November 2014 Measure 1 referendum campaign, where a pre-election opinion poll taken a little over a month before the referendum was held missed the final margin by a whopping 45 percentage points), so it's difficult to get even a general idea of how well the re-election campaign U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (DNPL-ND) is doing, let alone which candidates are favored in any of the other statewide races on the 2018 ballot in North Dakota. As a general rule, the estimated political floor for a statewide Dem-NPL candidate is around 25% or so of the statewide vote (Hillary Clinton got 27% of the North Dakota vote in the 2016 presidential election) and the estimated political ceiling for a statewide Dem-NPL candidate is around 65% or so of the statewide vote (North Dakota voters rejected November 2014 Measure 1, an anti-abortion fetal personhood state constitutional amendment proposal, with 64% of North Dakota voters voting to reject the proposed amendment).
The only statewide office in North Dakota that is held by a Dem-NPLer is the U.S. Senate seat that is currently held by Heidi Heitkamp, and she is in a competitive race against U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND). Heitkamp has made her support for preserving health care coverage for those with pre-existing conditions a major part of her re-election bid, and, as agriculture is a major part of North Dakota's economy, Heitkamp strongly opposes the Trump trade war.
As North Dakota was only apportioned one U.S. House seat as a result of the most recent U.S. Census, North Dakota's U.S. House race is a statewide race. This year's U.S. House race in North Dakota is an open-seat race between Dem-NPL nominee Mac Schneider, a former state senator, and Republican nominee Kelly Armstrong, a state senator and a delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention. Not surprisingly, Schneider is running his U.S. House campaign on a similar platform to that of Heitkamp's U.S. Senate bid, including support for protecting health insurance coverage for those with pre-existing conditions and opposition to the Trump trade war that has negatively impacted farmers. Schneider did very well in a recent debate, although an unusual moment occurred during the debate when a false fire alarm sounded, causing a brief delay.
Two other interesting statewide races in North Dakota are the races for secretary of state and tax commissioner, and, because of the Dem-NPL candidates in each of those races support a common policy proposal, I'll mention the secretary of state and tax commissioner races in the same paragraph. The Dem-NPL nominee for secretary of state, Josh Boschee, and the Dem-NPL nominee for tax commissioner, Kylie Oversen, support creating a online portal to coordinate operations of the secretary of state and tax commissioner offices in order to help businesses and non-profit organizations in North Dakota comply with state law, which Oversen explained very well in this radio interview. Oversen is running against a Republican incumbent, Ryan Rauschenberger, who is running for re-election as a Republican, however, there will be no Republican nominee listed on the ballot in the secretary of state race in North Dakota. Here's an explanation as to why there will be no Republican nominee listed on the North Dakota ballot in the secretary of state race: the longtime incumbent secretary of state, Al Jaeger, originally decided not to run for re-election after losing the Republican endorsement at convention to Will Gardner, but, after the news media in North Dakota reported that Gardner pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct charges stemming from a 2006 window-peeping incident, Gardner ended his campaign, and Jaeger decided to re-enter the secretary of state's race, but as an independent candidate.
South Dakota
Offices on the ballot in South Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, public lands commissioner, one at-large public utilities commission seat, the state's at-large U.S. House seat, all 35 state senate seats, and a total of all 70 state house seats in the 35 state legislative districts that each elect two state house members. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election via joint ticket.
In the gubernatorial election in South Dakota, Democrats have an opportunity to win the South Dakota governorship for the first time in four decades. Democrats nominated Billie Sutton, a former rodeo bronc rider who is now a rancher and the minority leader of the South Dakota State Senate, and Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD). As someone who fought to limit personal use of campaign money by South Dakota political candidates, Sutton has a proven track record of fighting against political corruption in South Dakota, and Sutton is running his gubernatorial campaign on an anti-corruption theme.
I don't know enough about the other statewide races in South Dakota to attempt to know which races are competitive, although, if a Democratic nominee is on the general election ballot for a particular statewide in South Dakota, one should treat the race as at least theoretically competitive due to the South Dakota gubernatorial race being competitive.
The Inland Midwest is a very Republican-leaning region of the country, as Donald Trump received slightly over 56% of the vote in last year's presidential election in the six-state region. However, at least one statewide race in each of the six states in the Inland Midwest are competitive (including all three U.S. Senate races in the region), and several U.S. House seats in the region are competitive as well. As much of the Inland Midwest's land use is for agricultural purposes, Trump's trade war, which has had a negative impact on farmers in the Inland Midwest, is an important issue in the Inland Midwest, especially in races for federal office. Additionally, issues like health care, rural broadband, workers' rights, the minimum wage, and human rights are important in the Inland Midwest.
In this blog post, I will detail multiple competitive races in each of the six Inland Midwestern states. The following notes apply:
- If multiple offices to the same body of government whose elected membership consists of more than one elected official (U.S. House, chamber of a state legislature, etc.) are on the ballot, and no other method of election is specified (such as multi-member districts, at-large seats, etc.), single-member districts are used.
- In the first paragraph under each state's name, any offices that rank below either a seat in the lower house of a bicameral state legislature or a seat in a unicameral state legislature, any state or local referenda, any judicial office (attorney general is classified as an executive office), and any special elections concurrent with the midterm general election are not listed; as a result, the clarification "...but not limited to..." is used.
- For the purposes of determining rank of office, the following order is used: U.S. Senate seat, then state executive office, then U.S. House seat, then state legislative seat.
Offices on the ballot in Iowa in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, agriculture commissioner, all four of the state's U.S. House seats, state senate seats in the 25 odd-numbered state senate districts, and all 100 state house seats. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election by joint ticket.
In the Iowa gubernatorial election, Fred Hubbell, a businessman and philanthropist, won the Democratic nomination in the primary, and Hubbell is now running against Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds. The Reynolds administration in Iowa has come under recent criticism over an Iowa Democratic veterans caucus entry to the Iowa State Fair veterans parade being removed from the parade for political reasons. Hubbell, among other things, supports reproductive rights, restoring public employee collective bargaining, and expanding soil and water conservation efforts.
In the secretary of state race in Iowa, small business owner Deidre DeJear won a hotly-contested Democratic primary to advance to the general election against Republican incumbent Paul Pate. If elected, DeJear would become the first black person to hold statewide elected office in Iowa history. DeJear is a staunch supporter of protecting voters' rights and ensuring that elections are properly administered.
It would not be unthinkable for Democrats to win all four of Iowa's congressional districts, and if that were to happen, it would be a net gain of three U.S. House seats out of Iowa alone for the Democrats.
In the 1st Congressional District of Iowa, Democratic nominee Abby Finkenauer, a state representative, is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Rod Blum. If there ever was a politician who sounded like Iowa, it would be Abby Finkenauer. Finkenauer has run television ads on local TV stations in the 1st District of Iowa highlighting her upbringing in a blue-collar family, and Finkenauer supports improving infrastructure, reproductive rights, relief for those burdened by student loan debt, and equal pay for equal work.
In the 3rd Congressional District of Iowa, Republican incumbent David Young is facing a difficult re-election battle against Democratic challenger Cindy Axne, who is running for Congress while refusing to take corporate political action committee donations. Axne, who herself was stripped of health insurance by a private health insurance company, supports creating a public option health insurance system. On other issues, Axne supports LGBTQ rights, reproductive rights, and renewable energy.
In the 4th Congressional District, white supremacist and Republican U.S. Rep. Steve King is facing Democratic challenger J.D. Scholten. Scholten has been critical of the Trump trade war, as well as corporate consolidation in the agriculture industry.
Kansas
Offices on the ballot in Kansas in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, insurance commissioner, state board of education seats in the five odd-numbered state board of education districts, all four of the state's U.S. House seats, and all 125 state house seats. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election by joint ticket.
The gubernatorial election in Kansas is shaping up to be extremely competitive. Kansas Republicans nominated Kris Kobach, the infamous, far-right Kansas Secretary of State who was the vice chairman of Donald Trump's voter suppression commission, in a closely-contested primary for governor in which Kobach defeated incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer for the GOP nomination. Kobach has a long history of controversial actions, including, but not limited to, refusing to follow a federal court order to stop enforcing a discriminatory proof-of-citizenship voter registration law, pressuring municipalities in multiple U.S. states into passing discriminatory anti-immigrant ordinances, and championing policies designed to make it as hard as possible for people to vote in elections. Furthermore, Kobach has employed white nationalists on his gubernatorial campaign staff. Democrats in Kansas nominated Laura Kelly, a state senator from Topeka, for governor. A major policy proposal that Kelly supports is fully funding K-12 education in Kansas, and Kelly also supports expanding Kansas's Medicaid program, investing in rural roads and rural broadband internet, and prohibiting discrimination against LGBTQ civil servants in Kansas. Kelly has a good chance of defeating both Kobach and independent candidate Greg Orman in the general election.
It would not be completely unthinkable for Democrats to win a majority of seats in Kansas's U.S. House delegation, even though Republicans currently hold all four of Kansas's U.S. House districts.
In the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas, Paul Davis, the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, is running against Republican nominee Steve Watkins. Davis has a massive cash-on-hand advantage according to the latest campaign finance reports, with Davis having slightly more than seven and a half times as much cash on hand as Watkins does. Davis has openly compared the disastrous Trump federal tax scam law to the failed Brownback experiment in Kansas, and Davis supports efforts to limit the influence of moneyed special interests in federal politics.
In the 3rd Congressional District of Kansas, Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder, who infamously went skinny-dipping in the Sea of Galilee in 2012, will face Democratic challenger Sharice Davids in the general election. Davids, an attorney and mixed martial arts fighter, would be among the first, if not the first, female Native American(s) elected to either house of Congress, as well as the first openly-LGBTQ person to be elected to either house of Congress from Kansas, if she were to win the general election. Not long before the media projected Davids to have won the Democratic primary, Yoder made a racist remark claiming that Davids was not "from around here", even though she attended Johnson County Community College, which is located in the 3rd District of Kansas. Yoder's remark about Davids was heavily criticized in a Kansas City Star editorial. Davids supports, among other things, allowing those with student loan debt to refinance student loans, expanding background checks on gun sales, LGBTQ rights, and voting rights.
In the 4th Congressional District of Kansas, a rematch of a 2017 special election that saw Republican Ron Estes defeat Democrat James Thompson by a narrow margin will take place in this year's general election. Thompson, in his second attempt to defeat Estes and win the Wichita-based U.S. House district, has the backing of prominent progressives like U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and U.S. House candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY-14), and Thompson supports Medicare for All, workers' rights, and investment in infrastructure, among other things.
Missouri
Offices on the ballot in Missouri in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, the state's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat, auditor, all eight of the state's U.S. House seats, state senate seats in the 17 even-numbered state senate districts, and all 163 state house seats.
Democrats in Missouri received a major boost from Missouri voters after, in a statewide referendum on August 8, voters repealed Missouri's anti-worker wage theft (i.e., right-to-work) law in a massive landslide. The resounding victory for the effort to repeal Missouri's wage theft law is a clear example that campaigning on worker's rights issues is a political winner in Missouri, and that Missouri voters want elected officials to protect worker's rights and support policies to boost their paychecks.
In the U.S. Senate race in Missouri, U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is running for re-election against Republican challenger Josh Hawley, who is the Missouri attorney general and is one of numerous state attorneys general who filed a lawsuit seeking to allow health insurance companies to deny health insurance coverage to those with pre-existing conditions. McCaskill has been a strong critic of Russian interference in U.S. elections, and McCaskill, like many other Democratic candidates in the Inland Midwest, has been heavily critical of the Trump trade war, and she supports protecting health care coverage for those with pre-existing conditions.
The state auditor race in Missouri is very interesting, one reason being that it's not completely clear if Republican nominee, Saundra McDowell, is eligible to run for the office of state auditor in Missouri. Missouri requires the state auditor to have been a Missouri resident for at least ten years at the time of election, and it appears to be at least a possibility that McDowell could be removed from the general election ballot. In any case, Democratic incumbent Nicole Galloway, who is seeking re-election to the state auditor's office, is an extremely dedicated public servant who is committed to protecting Missouri taxpayers.
Democrats currently hold two of Missouri's eight congressional districts, and at least two U.S. House races in Republican-held districts Missouri are competitive.
In the 2nd Congressional District of Missouri, Republican incumbent Ann Wagner is seeking re-election against Democratic challenger Cort VanOstran, an attorney who once clerked for former Missouri Supreme Court Chief Justice Richard Teitelman. VanOstran supports universal background checks on gun purchasers, expanding access to treatment facilities for those addicted to opioids, equal pay for equal work, and reducing the influence of money in politics.
In the 4th Congressional District of Missouri, small business founder and communion minister Renee Hoagenson narrowly won a well-fought Democratic primary contest, and Hoagenson will face Republican incumbent Vicky Hartzler. Hoagenson opposes using taxpayer money for private schools and supports Medicare for All and campaign finance reform.
Nebraska
Offices on the ballot in Nebraska in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, the state's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, state board of education seats in state board of education districts 5, 6, 7, and 8, state board of regents seats in state board of regents districts 3, 4, 5, and 8, state public service commissioner seats in state public service commission districts 1 and 3, all three of the state's U.S. House seats, and state senate seats in the 24 even-numbered state legislative districts. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election by joint ticket.
Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer is facing a tough re-election battle against Democratic challenger Jane Raybould, a Lincoln city councilor and grocery store executive. Raybould is making her opposition to Trump's trade war a major part of her campaign, and she supports actual policy proposals to lower health care costs, including allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices.
Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts is in a competitive re-election battle against Democratic candidate Bob Krist, a state senator and U.S. Air Force veteran. Ricketts has a prior history of losing a statewide election in Nebraska in a favorable political environment for Democrats nationally, as Ricketts lost the 2006 U.S. Senate race in Nebraska to then-U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson, and Krist has the endorsement of the Independent Cattlemen of Nebraska in this year's gubernatorial race in Nebraska.
One of the biggest surprises in the 2018 campaign season occurred in the Democratic primary in the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska, when Kara Eastman, a directly-elected member of a community college board and a non-profit organization founder, ran as a progressive candidate and narrowly defeated centrist former U.S. Rep. Brad Ashford (D-NE) to win the Democratic nomination. If she were to defeat incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, Eastman would be the first Democratic woman to represent any part of Nebraska in the U.S. House, and only the second woman of any party affiliation to represent any part of Nebraska in the U.S. House. Eastman is running on a progressive platform, including, among other proposals, making four-year college tuition-free for poor and middle-class Americans, Medicare for All, a ban on the sale of assault weapons to civilians, and investment in renewable energy. If elected, Eastman would probably be the most progressive person elected to federal office from Nebraska.
North Dakota
Offices on the ballot in North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, the state's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat, attorney general, secretary of state, tax commissioner, agriculture commissioner, two at-large public service commission seats, the state's at-large U.S. House seat, state senate seats in the 24 odd-numbered state legislative districts, and a total of 48 state house seats in the 24 odd-numbered state legislative districts that each elect two state house members.
North Dakota is the only Inland Midwestern state, and only one of two states nationally (the other being Minnesota, located in the Great Lakes region), where the official state-level Democratic Party organization does not operate under the name "Democratic Party". North Dakota's state-level Democratic Party organization was formed out of a merger between the state Democratic Party and the Nonpartisan League, a former state-level political party, and, as such, it is known as the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party, and a Democrat in North Dakota can be referred to as "Dem-NPLer".
In North Dakota, pre-election opinion polling data is usually very limited and of questionable quality (an infamous example of pre-election opinion polling in North Dakota being of poor quality was during the November 2014 Measure 1 referendum campaign, where a pre-election opinion poll taken a little over a month before the referendum was held missed the final margin by a whopping 45 percentage points), so it's difficult to get even a general idea of how well the re-election campaign U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (DNPL-ND) is doing, let alone which candidates are favored in any of the other statewide races on the 2018 ballot in North Dakota. As a general rule, the estimated political floor for a statewide Dem-NPL candidate is around 25% or so of the statewide vote (Hillary Clinton got 27% of the North Dakota vote in the 2016 presidential election) and the estimated political ceiling for a statewide Dem-NPL candidate is around 65% or so of the statewide vote (North Dakota voters rejected November 2014 Measure 1, an anti-abortion fetal personhood state constitutional amendment proposal, with 64% of North Dakota voters voting to reject the proposed amendment).
The only statewide office in North Dakota that is held by a Dem-NPLer is the U.S. Senate seat that is currently held by Heidi Heitkamp, and she is in a competitive race against U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND). Heitkamp has made her support for preserving health care coverage for those with pre-existing conditions a major part of her re-election bid, and, as agriculture is a major part of North Dakota's economy, Heitkamp strongly opposes the Trump trade war.
As North Dakota was only apportioned one U.S. House seat as a result of the most recent U.S. Census, North Dakota's U.S. House race is a statewide race. This year's U.S. House race in North Dakota is an open-seat race between Dem-NPL nominee Mac Schneider, a former state senator, and Republican nominee Kelly Armstrong, a state senator and a delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention. Not surprisingly, Schneider is running his U.S. House campaign on a similar platform to that of Heitkamp's U.S. Senate bid, including support for protecting health insurance coverage for those with pre-existing conditions and opposition to the Trump trade war that has negatively impacted farmers. Schneider did very well in a recent debate, although an unusual moment occurred during the debate when a false fire alarm sounded, causing a brief delay.
Two other interesting statewide races in North Dakota are the races for secretary of state and tax commissioner, and, because of the Dem-NPL candidates in each of those races support a common policy proposal, I'll mention the secretary of state and tax commissioner races in the same paragraph. The Dem-NPL nominee for secretary of state, Josh Boschee, and the Dem-NPL nominee for tax commissioner, Kylie Oversen, support creating a online portal to coordinate operations of the secretary of state and tax commissioner offices in order to help businesses and non-profit organizations in North Dakota comply with state law, which Oversen explained very well in this radio interview. Oversen is running against a Republican incumbent, Ryan Rauschenberger, who is running for re-election as a Republican, however, there will be no Republican nominee listed on the ballot in the secretary of state race in North Dakota. Here's an explanation as to why there will be no Republican nominee listed on the North Dakota ballot in the secretary of state race: the longtime incumbent secretary of state, Al Jaeger, originally decided not to run for re-election after losing the Republican endorsement at convention to Will Gardner, but, after the news media in North Dakota reported that Gardner pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct charges stemming from a 2006 window-peeping incident, Gardner ended his campaign, and Jaeger decided to re-enter the secretary of state's race, but as an independent candidate.
South Dakota
Offices on the ballot in South Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections include, but are not limited to, governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, public lands commissioner, one at-large public utilities commission seat, the state's at-large U.S. House seat, all 35 state senate seats, and a total of all 70 state house seats in the 35 state legislative districts that each elect two state house members. In addition, the office of lieutenant governor is elected in the gubernatorial election via joint ticket.
In the gubernatorial election in South Dakota, Democrats have an opportunity to win the South Dakota governorship for the first time in four decades. Democrats nominated Billie Sutton, a former rodeo bronc rider who is now a rancher and the minority leader of the South Dakota State Senate, and Republicans nominated U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem (R-SD). As someone who fought to limit personal use of campaign money by South Dakota political candidates, Sutton has a proven track record of fighting against political corruption in South Dakota, and Sutton is running his gubernatorial campaign on an anti-corruption theme.
I don't know enough about the other statewide races in South Dakota to attempt to know which races are competitive, although, if a Democratic nominee is on the general election ballot for a particular statewide in South Dakota, one should treat the race as at least theoretically competitive due to the South Dakota gubernatorial race being competitive.
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