The Progressive Midwesterner

I feel nauseously disappointed having to type this, since I don't like having to say this about any Democrat running for re-election, but I'm beginning to seriously doubt that U.S. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (DNPL-ND) can win re-election. A recent Fox News poll had Heitkamp trailing Republican challenger Kevin Cramer by 12 percentage points (41%-53%) among likely voters and by nine percentage points (41%-50%) among eligible voters. The sample of the poll was 29% Democratic, 54% Republican, and 17% Independent/Other by political party identification among likely voters, and 29% Democratic, 52% Republican, and 19% Independent/Other by political party identification among eligible voters. The poll represents an apparent surge in support for Cramer, despite Cramer having made a series of disgusting remarks about sexual assault . Furthermore, the poll appears to corroborate a recent poll by an obscure marketing firm called Strategic Research Associates showing Heitkamp trailing by ten p...

Based on recent pre-election opinion polling in the gubernatorial race here in Illinois, Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker has a commanding lead over Republican incumbent Bruce Rauner, with Pritzker close to majority support in Illinois (only a plurality of the vote is needed to win election to the governor's office in Illinois). Southern Illinois University Carbondale (SIU Carbondale) has a pre-election opinion polling operation that focuses on polling high-profile Illinois electoral races, such as races for governor, and a recent poll that they conducted had Pritzker with a commanding, but not prohibitive, lead in this year's gubernatorial race : The poll was conducted September 24-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point for the entire sample. The poll covered a sample of 1,001 registered voters. The election analysis presented here is based on 715 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.7 percentage points. When asked, “If th...

Tomorrow, voters in Ohio's 12th Congressional District will vote in a special election to fill the district's vacant U.S. House seat. Recent pre-election opinion polling has shown that the election is expected to be extremely close, although support for Democratic nominee Danny O'Connor appears to be surging in the lead-up to the special election. One recent pre-election opinion poll had O'Connor only one percentage point behind Republican nominee Troy Balderson, well within the poll's margin of error, and a different pre-election opinion poll had O'Connor ahead of Balderson by only one percentage point, also within that poll's margin of error. The 12th District of Ohio was gerrymandered by Republicans to be what would be considered in 2012 to be a Republican stronghold. After cracking the Columbus area into three Republican-leaning districts after the 2000 Census, Republicans in Ohio, after the 2010 Census and despite Ohio losing two congressional distr...